PhD Student in Environmental Systems Analysis, Wageningen University, the Netherlands
Research focus: integrated adaptation and mitigation pathways for a sustainable rice system
Currently, rice farming is the largest single use of land for producing food in the world. In Africa, rice is the fastest growing staple. Rice production needs to be increased to accommodate the world’s growing demand for rice while at the same time environmental impacts, such as greenhouse gas emissions and eutrophication, have to be reduced. Simultaneously, the production must adapt to climate change. The system is highly complex; it is driven by interacting social, economic, and environmental factors and requires an integrated approach to assess and understand its past, current, and future states.
Glory aims to develop an analytical framework to integrate adaptation and mitigation pathways at a landscape level to envision a sustainable rice system in her home country Nigeria. She seeks to answer the questions 1) What is? (current system description) 2) What could be? (scenarios/plausible futures) and c) What should be? (envisioning pathways).
First, she identified past and present drivers of agricultural change based on stakeholder surveys and existing data. She developed an aggregated fuzzy cognitive map (FCM) from this knowledge to characterise the system’s current state. This map already indicates some uncertainties in the functioning of the system in the future, and it allows to project possible future dynamics of the drivers of the rice production system.
Since local challenges for climate change adaptation and mitigation in the rice system are dependent on national and international socio-economic developments, Glory will use multi-scale scenarios to take these uncertainties into account. Scenarios capture the sensitivity of the system to multiple drivers and future changes.
Glory is developing scenarios based on Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSP) for Nigeria and is linking them to the stakeholder-based FCM to enhance the SSP local relevance and increase the study’s robustness. The scenarios will be entered into a dynamic spatial model (iCLUE), allowing for feedbacks and interactions. This enables her to identify spatially explicit mitigation and adaptation opportunities within the rice-production system from which integrated pathways can be developed. The method is designed to support a system description in a multi-interest and interdisciplinary way, combining qualitative stakeholder knowledge with quantitative modelling approach.
The jury honours Glory’s broad and extensive research profile and the high relevance of her research on sustainable rice production in Nigeria.